Middle East supply tightened immediately as imports had already slumped, with lower inventories intensifying the impact of the disruptions.
West and North Africa entered the disruption period with already-thin buffers, as weaker European supply had curtailed the usual start-of-year inventory build.
Europe entered the disruption with higher Group III supply, but its reliance on the Middle East for over 30% of volumes left it facing renewed inventory pressure.
Singapore’s imports from the Middle East fell to a multi-month low in March, pointing to the supply tightening that later spread across other regions.
China’s supply surge buffered its market, with more limited Group III exposure and stronger domestic output reducing reliance on disrupted Middle East flows.
US flows increasingly prioritised Latin America while regional demand fell, leaving the region relatively cushioned even as other markets tightened.
Saudi Arabia remained the only active Middle East export source, with shipments from other producers still paused, limiting any near-term recovery in flows.