Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 12 Jun '26

Global base oils supply rose to a five-year high in March, but demand rose even faster, flipping the market into its first deficit in more than five years.

Asia's supply continued to outpace demand, with higher output, softer exports and weaker Chinese procurement pointing to firmer regional availability.

China's output fell from a four-year high, but remained well above normal levels, reinforcing signs of sufficient domestic supply and limited need for additional imports.

India's lubricants demand rebounded despite higher fuel prices and supply disruptions, sustaining requirements for domestic and imported base oils.

Turkey's imports fell again as lower Russian and Middle Eastern availability increased reliance on European and alternative suppliers.

US Group III imports remained supported by South Korean shipments, but the pause in Qatar flows exposed a widening premium-grade supply gap.

Spain's elevated Group III exports helped build inventories, but delayed maintenance increased the risk of overlapping outages during an already tight summer period.

Trade flows continued to adjust to Middle East disruptions, with India and China sending cargoes to Singapore and more Saudi Arabian volumes moving to Europe.

Singapore's exports fell to a nine-year low, but inflows from China, India and Europe highlighted surplus supply elsewhere in Asia and raised longer-term market-share risks.