US’ April Base Oils Imports Fall, Qatar Flows Pause

• US base oils imports fell to a five-month low in April as Group III shipments from Qatar paused for the first time in more than four years

• A surge in South Korean shipments masked the near-disappearance of Middle East supply, but subsequent export flows pointed to a sharp pullback

• The Middle East's share of US Group III imports fell to its lowest since 2020, reinforcing signs that the supply gap is widening rather than closing

US base oils imports fell to a five-month low in April, with a temporary surge from South Korea masking the full extent of the slump in supply from the Middle East.

Total imports fell to 1.23 million barrels (173,000 tonnes) in April, down 20% year on year and from 1.46 million barrels in March, Census Bureau data showed.

Imports from key sources of Group III base oils edged up to 969,000 barrels, from 859,000 barrels in March.

But the apparent stability was misleading. South Korea's shipments surged to a 17-month high, reaching volumes that offset the near-total loss of Middle East flows.

The elevated South Korean volumes were unsustainable, while flows from the Middle East were set to dwindle even further.

Key Highlights

·         Imports from Qatar paused for the first time in more than four years, contrasting with average monthly volumes exceeding 320,000 barrels in the year to March.

·         UAE imports fell to 4,500 barrels, the lowest since plant maintenance in the country in July 2025 and far below typical monthly volumes of around 170,000 barrels.

·         Middle East suppliers accounted for just 14% of US Group III imports, down from more than 45% in 2025 and the lowest share since June 2020.

·         Recent South Korean export data pointed to a sharp slowdown in shipments to the US during April and May.

Market Repercussions

Group III imports remained near March levels only because of an unusually large increase in shipments from South Korea. Recent shipment flows suggested those elevated volumes were temporary.

The inflows pointed to a widening supply gap rather than a stabilising market. The Middle East historically accounted for more than 40% of US Group III imports, and the loss of those volumes exceeded the spare capacity available from remaining suppliers.

South Korea could partially offset the gap — but not at April's volumes, and not for long.

Upcoming maintenance at several of those remaining Group III plants in the coming months would reduce output further.

Group I and Group II supply held firmer than expected in recent months. Group III moved in the opposite direction — Middle East losses opened a gap that no replacement supply has closed.