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US base oils and lubricants exports rose to an 11-month high in April despite strong domestic demand, lower inventories and higher diesel prices
The increase pointed to firmer underlying supply than expected and added to similar signs across Asia
Spot shipments to West Africa, India and Mexico slowed after March's surge, pointing to tighter availability for spot buyers even as term supplies remained sufficient
US base oils and lubricants exports rose to their highest level in 11 months in April, pointing to supply sufficient to cover strong domestic and overseas demand despite falling domestic stocks and pressure on refiners to prioritise fuels output.
Total exports rose to close to 3.70 million barrels (518,000 tonnes) in April, up 8% year on year and from more than 3.20 million barrels in March, Census Bureau data showed. The volume was the highest since May 2025.
March exports had already reached a five-month high, driven by a surge in spot shipments to West Africa, India and Mexico, with the volumes lined up before the end-February disruptions began.
April's rise came against a backdrop of strong domestic demand and tighter stocks, suggesting that supply outside the premium-grade Group III segment remained sufficient.
Key Highlights
· Total exports rose year on year in April for the first time in eleven months.
· Combined exports to Africa, India and Mexico fell to a 40-month low in April, reversing a surge in shipments to a nine-month high in March.
· US domestic demand surged to a four-year high in March, drawing down stocks and leaving the market tighter than usual heading into the second quarter.
Market Repercussions
The rise in exports added to similar signs from other markets such as Asia, where production levels held firm despite pressure on refiners to maximise fuel output.
But the composition of exports pointed to a widening gap between term and spot markets.
March's surge included cargoes bound for regular outlets for surplus spot shipments. Lower flows to those same destinations in April pointed to tighter spot availability following the disruptions.
The divergence left spot-dependent buyers more exposed than term customers.
The slowdown in flows was more problematic for West Africa, which relied more heavily on spot shipments and had limited alternative supply options.
India was better positioned, with large term contracts and rising domestic production reducing its reliance on spot flows.
Sustained US exports pointed to a market where availability held firm for term buyers, with tightness concentrated in spot volumes and premium-grade Group III base oils.
