Asia's March export surge deferred the impact of supply disruptions into the second quarter, but masking underlying shifts in trade flows
Singapore's exports held near a one-year low in the month to 15 April with volatile weekly flows and lower run rates pointing to tightening supply
South Korea's March exports hit a five-month high, partly covering lost Middle East Group III flows to the US, but cargo loadings showed signs of slowing in April
Last Group III shipments from the Middle East completed their delivery runs in March and first-half April, with Saudi Arabia the only active export source in the region
Thailand and Pakistan entered the disruption period with thinner-than-usual buffers — Thailand's supply flipped to a shortfall in February and Pakistan faced pauses from three suppliers in February-March
Global fundamentals were already tighter than usual heading into the disruption: demand outpaced supply for a fifth straight month in January, leaving a smaller surplus buffer
US exports to South America extended their rise in February after global supply neared a multi-year high, but the headline figure masked weaker Americas and European supply that left both regions more exposed when disruptions emerged