·         US base oils demand could be more muted amid expectations of rise in domestic supply over coming weeks following completion of plant-maintenance work.

·         Sufficient availability of supply in recent weeks, even during plant-shutdown, points to signs of already-slower demand during that period.

·         Expected rise in supply would coincide with time of year when domestic consumption typically slows anyway.

·         Rise in supply and seasonal slowdown in demand could raise expectations of adjustment in prices to reflect weaker fundamentals.

·         Any such expectations could add to slowdown in demand and buyers’ focus on maintaining low stocks.

·         Weaker domestic fundamentals increase importance of overseas markets to absorb likely rise in surplus supply.

·         US Group II base oils export price-discount to domestic Europe prices continues to narrow in early-Nov 2025, especially for light grades.

·         Narrower discount and prospect of seasonal slowdown in demand in Europe curb attraction of moving more shipments to that market.

·         Markets like Middle East and India could remain more viable outlets, with CFR Group II price-premiums to US prices holding at more elevated levels, especially for heavy grades.

·         Demand in Latin America could stay more muted as buyers seek to maintain low inventories or work down existing stocks.

·         Argentina’s base oils stocks rise in Sept 2025 to second-highest level in more than three years as supply far outpaces demand.

·         Buyers likely to focus on working down those high inventories before seeking additional volumes.

·         Concern about exposure to lower prices adds to incentive to clear existing supplies first.

·         Europe’s base oils demand likely to stay muted as buyers focus on maintaining lean stocks ahead of seasonal slowdown at year-end.

·         Steady fall in outright base oils prices in recent weeks adds to incentive to hold back until prices show signs of bottoming out.

·         Weaker domestic prices cut further their price-differential to export prices.

·         Dynamic flips domestic SN 500 price to discount to export price for first time in more than three years.

·         Domestic brightstock price-discount to export price moves to widest level in more than three years.

·         Weak domestic demand raises prospect of rise in surplus supply to clear through export markets.

·         Weakness of domestic prices adds to incentive to maximise exports.

·         Europe Group I SN 500 export price flips back to premium to CFR UAE price in early-Nov 2025.

·         Firmer export-price differential complicates arbitrage shipments to markets like Middle East and India.

·         Weak domestic demand and less feasible arbitrage opportunities could speed up build-up of surplus supplies in Europe.