· Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay muted.· Expectations of healthy availability of supply and seasonal slowdown in demand curb urgency to lock in additional volumes.· Seasonal slowdown could limit immediate impact of any adjustment in base oils output because of lower margins.· Downward price-pressure for heavy-grade base oils grades adds to incentive to work down existing stocks first.· Closed arbitrage to Americas and seasonal slowdown in outlets like Europe curb opportunity to target those markets with more supplies.· Dynamic increases reliance on demand in Asia-Pacific market to absorb any surplus supplies.· Imported cargo price-premiums to FOB Asia prices stay firm in markets like India and China, pointing to ongoing buying interest in those markets.· Demand in southeast Asia also showed signs of holding firm..· China’s domestic Group II light-grade base oils price premium to Shandong diesel holds firm, while premium to FOB Asia cargo prices extends rise to highest in more than four months..· Ongoing strength of China's Group II light-grade prices coincides with restart of more domestic production capacity following maintenance work.· Ongoing strength of Group II light-grade prices and prospect of rise in supply points to firmer-than-usual demand at time of year when it typically slows..· Demand in southeast Asia shows more mixed signals.· Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia fall over last four weeks to lowest level in almost six months..· Sustained slowdown in shipments since late-Sept 2025 could reflect buyers’ more muted demand.· Slowdown in shipments follows signs of balanced stocks in southeast Asia at end-Q3 2025.· Asia’s base oils exports to southeast Asia lag demand in the region in Sept 2025 for first time in three months..· Exports lag demand even with high shipment-volumes to the region.· Shortfall coincides with increasingly mixed demand dynamics in southeast Asia. · Philippines’ base oils/lube imports fall in Sept 2025 for seventh month, pointing to anaemic demand in that country..· Fall in shipments coincides with slowdown in Vietnam’s base oils imports but rise in lube imports in Sept 2025.· Either way, steady-to-firm region-wide demand would speed up consumption of inventories and need to replenish those supplies.· Steady-to-firm demand would also slow build-up of surplus supplies in Asia, curbing need to target more distant markets with those volumes..· Japan’s base oils demand falls in Sept 2025 for seventh time in eight months..· Rising supply in Japan and in Asia in Sept 2025 magnifies impact of any slowdown in regional demand.· Japan’s base oils supply duly exceeds total demand in Sept 2025 by largest volume in 38 months..· Slowdown in demand and rise in surplus supply raises prospect of need to target more distant markets with surplus shipments.· Any such moves could add to downward pressure on Group I base oils prices..· India’s base oils demand could get support from likely slowdown in supplies from Saudi Arabia over coming months.· Expectations of pick-up in surplus availability from other key sources in Asia and other regions could curb buyers’ urgency to lock in alternative shipments.· Signs of high import volumes in Oct 2025 help to replenish blenders’ stocks, adding to buyers’ flexibility over timing of procurement of additional supplies.· Signs of slowdown in shipments to India from other key sources in recent weeks could trigger fall in India’s imports in Nov 2025.· Singapore’s base oils exports to India over last four weeks extend slide to lowest level since mid-Sept 2025..· Any clear slowdown in India’s total imports in coming weeks could support steadier buying interest..· India’s imported Group II base oils price-premium to FOB Asia cargo prices holds firm..· Firm price-premium keeps arbitrage open, points to steady buying interest..· India’s imported Group II very-light-grade price-discount to domestic retail diesel prices continues to weaken to narrowest level in more than a year..· Narrower price-discount to retail diesel price could start to curb demand for very-light grade base oils.· Increasingly squeezed very-light-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil conversely keeps pressure on rise in outright CFR N70 price.· Any such rise in outright price could curb further any dip in buying interest in the supplies..Japan’s Sept base oils demand falls.Asia Sept exports to SE Asia lag demand.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 3 November
