· Asia’s base oils prices extend steep fall vs gasoil prices..· Weaker outright prices compound the drop.· Sliding price-differentials, combined with increasingly firm diesel premium to crude oil, increase pressure on refiners to adjust output in response.· Any drop in surplus base oils supply would give refiners more leverage to resist downward price-pressure and instead adjust prices higher.· Any drop in surplus supply would also cushion impact of still-limited arbitrage opportunities to more distant markets.· Likely pick-up in surplus supplies from US in coming weeks would complicate further any such arbitrage opportunities.· US Group II heavy-grade price-discount to CFR India cargo price widens in early-Nov 2025 to widest level in more than a month, reflecting that dynamic..· Asia’s recent export flows point to mixed signals over supply outlook.· Singapore’s base oils shipment volumes stay lower than usual in recent weeks, with four-week exports to early-November dipping to lowest level since H1-Feb 2025..· Exports slide despite recent start-up of new unit in Singapore at end-Q3 2025.· Lower exports suggest new unit has yet to reach full-production capacity.· Singapore takes delivery in past week of large cargo of Russian origin.· Shipment is first in more than a month, extends trend of regular shipments from Russia throughout this year.· Singapore’s base oils imports from Saudi Arabia extend pause since start of Oct 2025..· Pause in shipments contrasts with regular flows throughout the year.· Pause in shipments coincides with signs of slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s base oils exports in Oct 2025 and precedes plant-maintenance work from mid-Nov 2025..· Taiwan’s base oils exports slow sharply in H2 Oct 2025 before rebounding in early-Nov 2025.· Wave of shipments amounting to more than 22,000 tonnes load from Taiwan since start of Nov 2025.· More mixed export flows from key suppliers in recent weeks follow surge in Asia’s base oils exports to thirteen-month high in Sept 2025 ..· Rise in shipments boosts buyers’ stocks, cushioning impact of any slowdown in exports in recent weeks..· China’s base oils output could rise in Nov 2025, after production dips to three-month low in Oct 2025..· Output could rise this month following completion of some plant-maintenance work.· Lower output in Oct 2025 coincides with rise in domestic Group II light-grade price differentials vs diesel and FOB Asia cargo prices..· Those firm price-differentials could face pressure from likely rise in output in Nov 2025, combined with seasonal slowdown in demand..· Japan’s base oils output rebounds to five-month high in Sept 2025..· Higher output, weak domestic demand and low exports point to build-up of Group I base oils stocks in Japan.· Recovery in output and build-up in stocks coincides with pick-up in Group I base oils supply from other sources in Asia and from other regions.· Recovery in output and build-up in stocks raises prospect of pick-up in exports in Q4 2025, adding to rise in Asia’s surplus Group I base oils supply.· Build-up in supplies curbs refiners’ leverage to target higher prices in response to squeezed margins.· Dynamic instead incentivizes refiners to cut output..China’s October base oils output falls.Japan’s September base oils supply rises.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 10 November
