· US base oils demand likely to weaken over coming weeks amid seasonal slowdown in requirements and expected rise in supply.· US Group II domestic price-premium to export prices stay in narrow range at time of year when it typically widens..· Steady domestic price-premium points to more balanced fundamentals, curbs pressure on any imminent adjustment in those domestic prices.· Steady outright prices could incentivize buyers to maintain rather than hold back from any procurement plans.· Even so, any such procurement plans likely to involve smaller volumes as blenders focus on trimming stock-levels..· Latin America’s base oils demand could be mixed.· Brazil’s base oils demand likely to hold steady to replenish and maintain balanced-to-low inventories.· Brazil’s base oils demand matches supply in Sept 2025, reflecting that dynamic..· Balanced-to-low stocks give blenders flexibility to benefit from availability of any pick-up in supplies at competitive price levels over coming months.· Balanced-to-low stocks give blenders flexibility to slow down procurement plans if finished lube demand slows.· Expectations of slower economic growth over coming year boosts attraction of maintaining that kind of flexibility..· Argentina’s base oils demand could be more muted in face of persistently weak lube consumption.· Argentina’s lube demand falls in Sept 2025 for fifth time in six months..· Shrinking demand slows blenders’ consumption of feedstock base oils supplies.· Shrinking demand incentivizes blenders to maintain low stocks.· Surplus of lube production over demand by contrast rises to multi-year high in Q3 2025..· Rising surplus of lubricants supplies could add to blenders’ incentive to trim output, cutting demand for feedstock supplies..· Argentina’s base oils demand could face additional pressure from moves to remove build-up of surplus supplies.· Argentina’s base oils demand lags supply in Sept 2025 by largest volume in at least two years..· Rise in surplus supply curbs buyers’ ability to take advantage of any rise in surplus volumes in overseas markets over coming months.· Rise in surplus supply instead leaves buyers exposed to risk of lower prices in coming months, cutting the value of those stocks.· Dynamic incentivizes buyers to clear stocks first before seeking additional volumes..· Demand for US supplies in other overseas markets could get support from signs of slowdown in shipments from some key suppliers in Asia in recent weeks.· Exports from Saudi Arabia also set to fall in coming weeks because of planned-maintenance work in the country..· Europe’s base oils demand likely to stay weak in face of healthy availability of supply and slack lube consumption growth.· Italy’s lube demand rises in Sept 2025 at slowest pace in five months..· Weak consumption raises prospect of Europe’s lube-demand growth remaining weak through Q4 2025.· Weak consumption-growth facilitates blenders’ procurement plants, gives them more flexibility to keep lower stocks.· Weak consumption-growth similarly facilitates base oils distributors’ supply plans.· Blenders’ lower stocks could also limit size of destocking at year-end..· Europe’s demand for Group III base oils shows signs of holding firmer.· Premium of Group III 4cSt (low) price over Group II N150 extends rise at end-Oct 2025 to widest level in a year..· Price-premium continues to widen even with pick-up in Group III supplies from Middle East.· Firm price-premium and rising supply raises prospect either of adjustment in price or points to stronger demand that more than balances out rise in supply..Italy’s September lube demand rises .Argentina’s Sept lube demand falls.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 3 November
