· US base oils prices stay relatively firm in narrow range vs vacuum gasoil prices..· Firm margins in recent weeks coincide with shutdown of key US Group II base oils unit for maintenance work.· Firm margins in recent months coincide with surge in US domestic base oils output in July-Aug 2025..· Surge in output suggests that base oils margins remain at levels that incentivize refiners to maintain high production levels.· Incentive to maintain high production in July-Aug 2025 coincides with time of year when supply faces risk of weather-related disruptions.· Incentive to maintain higher output in recent months coincides with plant-maintenance work.· Extension of base oils margins at similar levels in Nov 2025 follows imminent completion of plant-maintenance work and unexpectedly quiet Atlantic hurricane season.· Incentive to maintain higher output now coincides with likely rise in supply and seasonal slowdown in demand..· Europe’s supply likely to be readily available for all base oils grades.· Group I supply likely to be readily available as lack of scheduled plant-maintenance and slack consumption counters any disruption caused by plant-stoppage in eastern Europe.· Steady base oils output in rest of Europe raises prospect of supply holding at similar levels to Q3 2025.· Europe’s Group I base oils supply rises to seven-month high in Aug 2025, after already holding at higher levels in each of previous two months..· Slowdown in Europe’s Group I base oils exports in Aug 2025 leaves more of those supplies staying within the region in Aug 2025..· Supply would be even higher but for surge in shipments from UK to Singapore and rise in flows from Greece to Nigeria in Aug 2025.· Similar pick-up in exports could be necessary to limit size of surplus in coming months..· Europe’s Group II base oils supply likely to remain readily available.· Europe’s Group II prices weaken vs light-grade prices in US and Asia in recent weeks but hold firm vs heavy-grade prices in those markets..· Firm imports and prospect of steady-to-high regional output would follow strong pick-up in Europe’s Group II supply in Aug 2025..· Europe’s Group II prices hold firm through Q3 2025 even with higher supply and seasonal slowdown in demand.· Group II price-strength could reflect Group II’s growing market share relative to other grades like Group I base oils.· Group II price-strength could reflect unusually large rise in Netherlands’ exports to Singapore in Aug 2025..· Any repeat of such flows less likely in coming months following start-up of new Group II unit in Singapore in Sept 2025.· Any such slowdown in flows, combined with seasonal dip in demand at year-end, could put pressure on fundamentals if supply holds at higher levels through Q4 2025..· Europe’s Group I/II/III base oils supply combined rises to one-year high in Aug 2025..· Rise in supply, weak regional demand and slowdown in base oils exports triggers surge in supply-surplus to highest level in four years..· Dynamic highlights speed of rise in surplus supplies amid higher output, less feasible arbitrage opportunities and weaker demand.· Europe’s Group I base oils price-premium to VGO faces more pressure than Group II and Group III prices during Q3 2025..· Weaker Group I price-differentials suggest impact of surge in surplus has largest impact on Group I base oils market..Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 10 November.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 10 November.Europe August supply exceeds demand.Europe Aug Group I supply extends rise.Europe's August Group II supply rises
