Turkey’s base oils trade flows showed structural shifts in October as rising shipments from Egypt and increased premium-grade imports cushioned a sustained fall in flows from Russia.

Total imports stayed lower than usual for a third month, leaving buyers’ stocks under growing pressure.  

·         Group I imports drop sharply: Shipments from Russia fell for the third straight month, pushing Turkey’s Group I base oils imports to the lowest level since mid-2021.

·         European supplies steady but limited: Low volumes from Europe were unable to offset the shortfall from Russia.

·         Price gaps remain key: The cost difference between Russian and European cargoes stayed near $400/tonne, limiting direct substitution.

·         Egypt steps in: Group I imports from Egypt rose to a five-month high, partially filling the gap from Russia.

·         Egyptian cargoes increasingly attractive: The price gap versus Russian supplies narrowed to less than $140/tonne, encouraging buyers to source from Egypt.

·         Premium-grade imports rise: Shipments climbed to a four-month high, boosting overall base oils imports, though total volumes remain the fourth-lowest since early 2023.

·         European shipments rise in November: A pick-up in flows could reflect either more competitive prices or limited supply options for buyers.