Turkey’s January Group I Base Oil Imports Fall To Four-Year Low

Turkey’s Group I base oils imports fell to a four-year low in January as shipments from Russia slumped to their lowest in more than two years, cutting flows from the country’s largest overseas source of those supplies.

Premium-grade imports held firmer even as shipments from Russia and the Middle East fell, a trend that the Middle East conflict is likely to prolong.

Total Group I base oils imports fell to 15,200 tonnes in January, down from more than 30,000 tonnes in December and 33% below year-earlier levels, Turkish Statistical Institute data showed.

Premium-grade base oils imports held firmer at 27,000 tonnes, slipping from 30,000 tonnes in December but still up 32% year on year.

Turkey's base oils inflows typically face a seasonal slowdown at the start of the year as importers renew licences and draw down stocks built up at the end of the previous year.

The larger drop in shipments this year reflected lower supplies from two markets where military conflict is disrupting refinery output, raising the prospect of a further slowdown in the coming weeks.

Key Highlights

·         January Group I imports from Russia fell to 6,100 tonnes, down from more than 11,000 tonnes during each of the previous two months and the lowest since October 2023.

·         Imports from Greece paused for the second time in four months, extending a multi-year slowdown in shipments from that supplier.

·         Premium-grade base oils accounted for 64% of Turkey’s total base oils imports in January, up from close to 50% in December and the highest level since late-2023.

·         Shipments of premium-grade base oils from the Netherlands rose to more than 12,000 tonnes, more than doubling from December to a record high.

·         Premium-grade base oils imports from the Middle East fell to a four-month low, cutting their share of those supplies to 13% of the total, down from 28% in December and 17% in 2025, with almost all the shipments originating from Qatar and Bahrain.

Market Repercussions

The Middle East’s relatively small share of Turkey’s total premium-grade imports reflects the inclusion of Group II base oils from sources such as the Netherlands and the US in the total volume.

Excluding those volumes, the Middle East accounts for a much larger share of Turkey’s Group III base oils.

That concentration points to a greater vulnerability than the headline import share suggests, with the ongoing conflict in the region already cutting flows from Qatar and Bahrain.

Turkey could seek replacement volumes from sources such as Spain, but most of that country’s shipments were likely already committed to term buyers.

Russia is another potential source. But the recent slowdown in flows from that market pointed to the pressure its refineries faced during the ongoing war with Ukraine.