Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 13 Mar '26

Global base oil supply exceeded demand by the smallest December margin in three years, leaving the market with less buffer as Middle East disruption spreads

Global supply reached a four-year high in 2025, but expectations of a 2026 surplus have reversed as the conflict disrupts shipments and threatens output

China’s elevated February output cushions the market against supply shocks, but lower Group III production leaves that segment tighter

Singapore exports surged to a three-year high, even as feedstock disruption threatens future shipments

India’s February lubricants demand rose for an eighth straight month, keeping base oils supplies tight ahead of peak seasonal demand

Taiwan’s February exports fell to a 17-month low as shipments to India paused, raising the risk of tighter Asian supply if the slowdown extends into March

Europe’s December supply fell for an eighth straight month, leaving the market more exposed ahead of spring demand

Saudi cargo diverted from the UAE to India, Spanish premium grades reach India via the Red Sea, and more US shipments moved to West Africa