Mexico’s base oils imports jumped again in October, extending a five-month surge that began in mid-2025 and continued through the introduction of stricter fuel-import rules at the start of the fourth quarter.

The trend could point to a more sustained structural shift in US–Mexico trade flows.

Any such dynamic would have repercussions for surplus US supplies, for which Mexico has been a key outlet.

·         Imports extended their rise in October to the highest level since July 2023, reinforcing a sustained uptrend rather than a one-off rebound.

·         The five-month increase since mid-2025 points to firmer buying interest, even as US export volumes to Mexico weakened.

·         Mexico’s rising imports contrast with a slump in US exports in July–August 2025, suggesting October’s increase may not reflect a recovery in US shipments.

·         Mexico’s import volumes typically covered less than 40% of US exports through late-2023 to mid-2025, but exceeded 70% in August–September — a shift that reflects a return to a closer correlation between Mexico imports and US exports.

·         A continuation of this closer correlation between Mexico’s import volumes and US export levels would pressure US suppliers to divert more barrels to alternative outlets rather than Mexico.

·         The surge in October extended beyond the introduction of stricter fuel-import rules, suggesting the impact of policy changes on trade flows could last longer than usual.