Taiwan’s base oils exports stayed unusually high in January for a second month as a swathe of shipments moved to China, southeast Asia and the Middle East, underscoring the growing importance of diversified outlets as Asian supply expands.

Total exports reached 58,300 tonnes in January, easing from December’s six-year-high of close to 68,000 tonnes, but still marking the second-highest volume in two years, government data showed.

The sustained export strength kept pressure on Asia’s demand holding firm to maintain the region’s supply-demand balance.

Key Highlights

·         Combined December-January exports exceeded 126,000 tonnes, the strongest two-month performance since 2019.

·         Two consecutive months of strong shipments contrast with the typical pattern of a sharper correction following a high export month.

·         Exports to China rose to a ten-month high, likely influenced by inventory-building ahead of Lunar New Year holidays in second-half February.

·         Combined shipments to the UAE and Pakistan rose to the second-highest level in 14 months, lifting their share of total exports to more than 20%, up from 11% in 2025.

·         Group II light-grade exports held relatively steady, while heavy-grade shipments fell more sharply from December.

Market Repercussions

The rise in shipments to China and to markets like the Middle East and Pakistan in January highlights the benefit of export diversification, helping to mitigate short-term demand fluctuations in any single market.

The importance of diversified outlets is likely to grow over the coming year as regional base oils production capacity rises, increasing pressure on refiners to secure stable outlets for their supplies.

A third month of elevated export volumes appears unlikely, with Taiwan’s shipments falling so far in February compared with month-earlier levels.