Base oils exports rise in 2025 to highest since 2019.More base oils shipments target less regular outlets like Bangladesh, Pakistan and Europe.Exports could face pressure in 2026 as production comes online in India, which could curb its demand for shipments from Taiwan.Taiwan’s base oils exports surged in December to the highest in more than six years as a wave of shipments targeted less traditional outlets amid intensifying competition across Asia.Total base oils exports of close to 68,000 tonnes in December rose from less than 41,000 tonnes in November to the highest since early-2019, government data showed..The rise in shipments added to a surge in total exports to 579,000 tonnes in 2025, up 16% year on year from 501,000 tonnes in 2024 and the highest since 2019.The rise in shipments to markets such as Bangladesh and Europe could point to a strategic shift away from Asia markets where base oils production capacity has expanded rapidly in recent years..Key Highlights· Base oils exports to India climbed to 26,600 tonnes in December, surging to a record high.· Shipments to India rose despite the imminent start-up of new base oils production capacity, which could curb import requirements later this year..India’s November Base Oils Imports Hold Firm.· Exports to Bangladesh rose to a record-high in December, extending a surge in shipments to the country during the second half of 2025.· Aside from a single cargo in 2024, Taiwan had not shipped base oils to Bangladesh for at least a decade before 2025.· Exports to Europe exceeded 3,000t tonnes in December, the second sizeable cargo sent to the region in the second half of 2025..Europe’s October Group II Base Oils Supply Trends Higher.· Before August 2025, the last cargo to Europe was in early-2023, underlining the unusual nature of the pick-up in flows.· The latest cargo is scheduled to arrive in early February, when import tariffs on premium-grade base oils could have been removed, improving the economics of such shipments.· Exports stayed rangebound to China and southeast Asia, markets where production capacity has risen sharply in recent years..China’s November Base Oils Demand Climbs to Eight-Month High.Market RepercussionsTaiwan’s base oils exports to China fell in 2025 to the lowest in more than a decade, as China’s well-supplied Group II base oils market reduced its need for imports.Southeast Asia’s share of Taiwan’s base oils exports declined for the first time in six years, at a time when new regional capacity incentivized suppliers to seek alternative markets..Singapore’s Base Oils Exports Diverge In Month to 7 January .India by contrast saw its share of Taiwan’s exports rise to the highest in more than eight years.The trend could face pressure in 2026 as new Indian production comes online, which could trigger dynamics similar to those already seen in China and southeast Asia.Any slowdown in India’s requirements would add to pressure on Taiwan to move more shipments to outlets such as Bangladesh, Pakistan and Europe.
