Base oils exports to the Middle East paused in March for the first time since 2013 as routes into the region stayed closed, pushing shipments to other markets.
Exports to South Africa reached a record high as flows shifted away from the Middle East
Steady flows to India left that market more exposed to any slowdown in South Korean supply in the coming months
South Korea's base oils exports to the Middle East paused in March for the first time in more than a decade, pushing shipments towards other markets as routes into the region remained closed.
The pause followed a marked revision to February shipments to the UAE, which were cut to 3,000 tonnes from 16,000 tonnes previously and typical monthly volumes of close to 20,000 tonnes in 2025, Korea Customs data showed.
The February revision reflected the redirection of some shipments that had yet to reach the UAE by end-February, when the Middle East conflict began.
A large portion instead moved to India, whose reliance on South Korean supplies was likely to increase amid disruption to Middle East flows and a sustained slowdown in arbitrage shipments from other sources such as the US.
Key Highlights
· The pause in shipments to the Middle East was the first since 2013.
· Exports to India rose to a five-month high of more than 111,000 tonnes, climbing from typical levels of 97,000 tonnes/month in 2025 but up just 1% year on year.
· Shipments to India accounted for 28% of South Korea’s total exports, in line with 2025 levels.
· Exports to South Africa jumped to more than 14,000 tonnes, rising from typical levels of less than 1,000 tonnes/month to a record high.
Market Repercussions
The redirection of South Korean shipments to India in February showed signs of waning in March, with additional volumes moving instead to other outlets such as South Africa.
The lack of a marked pick-up in flows to India mirrored a similar pattern in Taiwan’s March exports, where volumes to India held steady while shipments to China and Southeast Asia rose more sharply.
Singapore’s exports followed a similar trajectory in March.
The additional shipments to other markets provided a buffer ahead of the likely slowdown in such flows in the coming months as feedstock constraints weighed on refinery run rates.
The steadier flows to India left that country more exposed to any such slowdown, with limited alternative sources to cover the gap.