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Base oils exports rebounded to the third-highest level in twenty months, with stronger flows to China and Southeast Asia ahead of supply disruptions
Shipments to the Middle East, Pakistan and Bangladesh paused, accelerating the drawdown of supply buffers in those markets
Feedstock disruptions and motor fuels prioritisation pointed to a slowdown in Taiwan's export volumes in coming months
Taiwan’s base oils exports rebounded in March, mirroring a similar pattern in markets such as Singapore that pointed to the delayed impact from supply disruptions from end-February.
Total exports rose to more than 54,000 tonnes in March, up from around 35,000 tonnes in February to the third-highest level in twenty months, Customs Administration data showed.
The two highest monthly levels during that period came in December and January, with those shipments and the March rebound boosting stocks in China and southeast Asia and providing a temporary cushion ahead of the disruptions that followed.
Key Highlights
· Exports of more than 21,000 tonnes to China were the highest in a year, lifting first-quarter shipments to the country to a two-year high of 57,000 tonnes.
· Shipments to China accounted for 39% of Taiwan’s total exports in the first quarter, up from a 30% share in 2025.
· March exports to Southeast Asia rose to more than 18,000 tonnes, the highest in 19 months.
· Shipments to Southeast Asia and India combined accounted for almost 60% of Taiwan’s total exports, up from 53% in 2025 and the highest share in six months.
· Shipments to the UAE, Pakistan and Bangladesh all paused simultaneously for the first time since January 2025.
· Group II heavy grades accounted for more than 50% of total shipments, up from less than 45% in February.
Market Repercussions
The rise in total exports in March pointed to a muted impact of the supply disruptions on overall cargo volumes that month, with the more immediate effect visible in the destination of the shipments.
The pause in flows to the Middle East and Pakistan pointed to a redirection of shipments towards China and Southeast Asia, boosting the supply buffer in those markets while cutting it faster in others.
The reprieve for Southeast Asia was likely to be temporary. Feedstock supply disruptions and a shift towards motor fuels output pointed to a slowdown in Taiwan’s export volumes in the coming months.
China's rising domestic output left it better placed to absorb any such slowdown in shipments from Taiwan than more import-dependent markets such as Pakistan.
