Singapore’s base oils exports held close to the lowest level in more than a year in the four weeks to 15 April, pointing to tightening supply as refinery run rates came under pressure.

Total exports rose to 123,000 tonnes, up from a two-year low of 116,000 tonnes the previous week, Enterprise Singapore data showed.

The four-week volume remained the second lowest in more than a year, with the previous week’s total the lowest level during that period.

Exports rose on the back of a jump in weekly shipments to more typical levels after the previous week’s slump, extending a similar pattern of alternating swings over the past month.

Key Highlights

·         Total four-week exports fell from more than 230,000 tonnes a month ago, even with the recent volatility of weekly exports.

·         Four-week exports to Southeast Asia edged up from a one-year low, shipments to India rose from a two-year low, while flows to China extended their drop.

·         Imports rose after the arrival of an unusually large shipment from the Netherlands, the first cargo from that market since end-January.

·         Imports included a small volume from Qatar, the first flows from that source in more than a month.

Market Repercussions

An extension of the recent pattern of alternating weekly flows would point to another decline in shipments in the coming week.

A break from that pattern would instead lift exports closer to more typical levels.

Any sustained increase in volumes would offer some relief to an Asian market facing tightening fundamentals as lower refinery run rates squeezed supply.