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Singapore's base oils exports fell to a six-year low in the four weeks to 3 June, with domestic shipments dropping to their lowest level in more than five years
Weekly exports fell for a third straight week, breaking from a pattern of rebounds that had held since March
Lower Singapore supply increased reliance on other Asian producers, though a seasonal slowdown in demand could help cushion the impact
Singapore's base oils exports fell to their lowest level in more than six years in the four weeks to 3 June, pointing to a more sustained slowdown in supply after shipments had repeatedly rebounded from weekly declines since March.
Total exports fell to less than 110,000 tonnes, Enterprise Singapore data showed. The volume was the lowest since May 2020, when pandemic restrictions disrupted normal trade flows.
Domestic exports fell to their lowest in more than five years, while re-exports of overseas-origin material dropped to their lowest since second-half April.
The latest decline contrasted with earlier weakness in March and April, when exports typically rebounded within a week. Shipments instead fell for a third consecutive week, raising the prospect that the slowdown extended beyond short-term volatility.
Key Highlights
· Weekly exports of less than 13,000 tonnes were the lowest since March and the second-lowest in more than two years.
· Four-week exports to southeast Asia fell to the lowest since early April and to their second-lowest level in more than a year.
· Exports to China stabilised, while shipments to India extended their decline at a slower pace.
· Imports rebounded on higher arrivals from Saudi Arabia and Europe, with another European cargo due in early July.
Market Repercussions
A more sustained slowdown in Singapore exports would offset much of the firmer-than-expected supply emerging from other Asian producers.
Higher run rates in India, South Korea and Japan helped improve regional availability in the second quarter. Lower exports from Singapore would partially offset that benefit and instead increase demand for supplies from those markets.
The slowdown pointed to a market that is stabilising rather than one that is comfortably supplied, with availability vulnerable to any production setback at at key Asian export hubs.
A seasonal slowdown in demand over the coming months could limit the impact of a more extended drop in supplies from Singapore.
Asia's growing number of significant production centres also reduced the risk that lower supply from any single market would trigger a broader regional shortage.
China’s elevated domestic production provided a buffer. India's expanding output further reduced the region’s reliance on any single supplier.
