India’s base oils output climbed to a thirty-three month high in December, offering an early signal of rising domestic supply as new capacity starts to come online and maintenance draws to a close.

Total output rose to 138,000 tonnes in December, up from 106,000 tonnes in November and less than 100,000 tonnes in October, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas data showed.

The dip in output earlier in the fourth quarter coincided with planned plant maintenance work linked to the start-up of new premium-grade base oils production capacity.

The rebound in output in December pointed to the completion of the maintenance work and the ramp-up of the new production units.

Key Highlights

·         December output rose year on year for the sixth time in seven months, reaching its highest level since the first quarter of 2023.

·         Higher December production lifted India’s full-year 2025 base oils output to 1.38 million tonnes, up 10% year on year and marking a four-year high.

·         The gap between domestic output and demand widened to a record 3.44 million tonnes in 2025, underlining India’s continued need for additional domestic or overseas supply.

·         Higher output in December contrasted with a drop in base oils imports to a ten-month low, mirroring a similar trend seen in markets like China.

Market Repercussions

Sustained output at similar or higher levels at the start of this year would add to signs that India’s newly-added base oils capacity is now operational.

Rising domestic supply could curb India’s requirement for growing volumes of imported base oils, enabling blenders to operate with leaner inventories and greater flexibility with their procurement strategies.

At the same time, continued growth in India’s lube consumption growth is likely to absorb a large portion of the new domestic supplies.

Such a scenario would sustain the need for elevated imports and inventories, especially during periods of seasonally-strong demand or plant-maintenance work.