Demand rises for a sixth month, lifting 2025 consumption to a record highStrong demand contrasts with flat domestic base oils production, boosting reliance on imports to cover requirementsSustained demand growth could keep base oils imports elevated even with start-up of new domestic capacity.India’s lubricants demand rose in December for a sixth straight month, pushing total consumption to a record high in 2025 and reinforcing the country’s position as the world’s fastest-growing major lubricants market.Lubricants consumption of 423,000 tonnes in December rose by 17% and for a sixth straight month from year-earlier levels, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas data showed.The sustained rise in demand kept pressure on base oils feedstock supply to keep pace.Flatlining base oils production meant imports had to make up most of the shortfall..Key Highlights· The sustained rise in consumption lifted India’s total lubricants demand to more than 4.80 million tonnes in 2025, up 8% year on year and rising for a third straight year to a record high..· India’s lubricants demand growth contrasted with shrinking or anaemic growth in other major lubricants markets such as China, Europe and the US..China’s November Base Oils Demand Climbs to Eight-Month High.· Stronger demand contrasted with rangebound domestic base oils production through 2021-2025, limiting its ability to keep pace.· Base oils imports rose by 10% year-on-year in January-November, reflecting India’s increasing reliance on overseas supplies..India’s November Base Oils Fundamentals Turn More Balanced.· Expectations of strong economic growth in 2026 raise the prospect of lube demand extending its upward trend.· Demand is likely to get further support from an ongoing pick-up in automobile sales, which rose by 15% in December and by 8% in 2025..Market RepercussionsIndia’s rapidly-expanding lubricants market reinforced the need for additional base oils feedstock supplies.New domestic production capacity coming online this year is set to lift supply and meet a larger share of the country’s requirements.Even so, any repeat of the 360,000-tonne rise in consumption seen in 2025 would sustain the need for large volumes of base oils from overseas markets.
