Lower base oils imports contrast with rising lube demand, squeezing blenders' supplyShipments from Saudi Arabia slide to five-year low, and from the US to one-year lowIndia's total imports climb to four-year high in 2025, but the trend could reverse in 2026 as new domestic capacity comes online.India’s base oils imports fell to a ten-month low in December, tightening blenders’ supply at a time of rising domestic lube demand.Total imports slipped to just over 300,000 tonnes in December, down from more than 330,000 tonnes in each of the previous three months, provisional customs data showed..Imports rose by 1% year on year and for a seventh straight month but still lagged the 17% surge in India’s lube consumption in December to a three-month high.The mismatch highlighted India’s growing reliance on overseas supplies to meet the country’s fast-rising demand..Key Highlights· Saudi Arabia shipments fell to a five-year low, reflecting the impact of plant-maintenance in the Middle East country..Saudi Arabia’s November Yanbu/Jeddah Base Oils Exports Edge Higher.· Imports from the US dropped to a one-year low, as rising supply across Asia complicated arbitrage opportunities, forcing US supplies to target alternative outlets.· Singapore shipments slipped to a one-year low, with more supplies staying within the Asia-Pacific region..Singapore Base Oils Exports Rise in Month to 14 Jan on China Surge.· Group I imports from Iran and Iraq extended their slump, contrasting with a wave of heavy-neutrals shipments from Iraq especially in the year to July.· Turkmenistan was a key outlier, with imports surging to a multi-year high on increased shipments of Group I light and heavy neutrals.· India’s total imports rose to more than 4.1 million tonnes in 2025, climbing 9% year on year to the highest level since 2021.· Imports accounted for their largest share of domestic lube demand in three years, underscoring India’s growing reliance on overseas supplies to meet rising consumption..India’s December Lube Demand Rises, Hits Record 2025 High.Market RepercussionsIndia’s need for rising overseas volumes reinforced its status as a key destination for major Asia exporters such as Singapore and South Korea, as well as arbitrage-driven suppliers like the US..US’ October Base Oils Exports Rise to Four-Month High .The imminent rise in India’s base oils production capacity this year is likely to cover a larger share of domestic demand.The shift is likely to slow or reverse import growth, with the most immediate impact likely to be on arbitrage-dependent suppliers.
