US base oils exports to South America edged lower in March while Europe recovered, pointing to a strategy of maintaining balanced supply in established markets before end-February disruptions up-ended global trade flows.

Total exports to South America eased to 498,000 barrels (70,000 tonnes) in March, down from 528,000 barrels in February and close to average monthly levels of around 490,000 barrels in 2025, Census Bureau data showed.

The slowdown contrasted with a recovery in flows to Europe to 353,000 barrels in March, up from 178,000 barrels in February. But shipments remained below average monthly levels of 416,000 barrels in 2025.

The reversion toward more typical levels contrasted with a pick-up in total US exports to a five-month high in March, driven by stronger flows to destinations such as West Africa that typically absorb surplus US supply.

The increase in shipments to those markets pointed to moves to maintain balanced supply in Europe and South America before the impact of the end-February disruptions fully filtered through global markets.

Key Highlights

·         First-quarter exports to Europe came to 1.14 million barrels, similar to year-earlier levels of 1.18 million barrels.

·         First-quarter exports to South America came to 1.51 million barrels, up from 1.37 million barrels the same time a year earlier.

·         Europe and South America’s combined share of US exports fell to 36% in March, slipping from 61% in January to the lowest since June 2025.

Market Repercussions

The more balanced exports to Europe and South America, and the removal of surplus shipments to India and Africa pointed to flows lined up before the end-February disruptions that reflected supply-demand fundamentals at that time.

The subsequent surge in demand and stock-building in Europe and South America from March flipped balanced fundamentals into an increasingly tight market.

The removal of those surplus supplies from the market limited US suppliers’ ability to respond, compounding the tightness.