·         US base oils prices stay relatively firm in narrow range vs vacuum gasoil prices.

·         Firm margins in recent weeks coincide with shutdown of key US Group II base oils unit for maintenance work.

·         Firm margins in recent months coincide with surge in US domestic base oils output in July-Aug 2025.

·         Surge in output suggests that base oils margins remain at levels that incentivize refiners to maintain high production levels.

·         Incentive to maintain high production in July-Aug 2025 coincides with time of year when supply faces risk of weather-related disruptions.

·         Incentive to maintain higher output in recent months coincides with plant-maintenance work.

·         Extension of base oils margins at similar levels in Nov 2025 follows imminent completion of plant-maintenance work and unexpectedly quiet Atlantic hurricane season.

·         Incentive to maintain higher output now coincides with likely rise in supply and seasonal slowdown in demand.

·         Europe’s supply likely to be readily available for all base oils grades.

·         Group I supply likely to be readily available as lack of scheduled plant-maintenance and slack consumption counters any disruption caused by plant-stoppage in eastern Europe.

·         Steady base oils output in rest of Europe raises prospect of supply holding at similar levels to Q3 2025.

·         Europe’s Group I base oils supply rises to seven-month high in Aug 2025, after already holding at higher levels in each of previous two months.

·         Slowdown in Europe’s Group I base oils exports in Aug 2025 leaves more of those supplies staying within the region in Aug 2025.

·         Supply would be even higher but for surge in shipments from UK to Singapore and rise in flows from Greece to Nigeria in Aug 2025.

·         Similar pick-up in exports could be necessary to limit size of surplus in coming months.

·         Europe’s Group II base oils supply likely to remain readily available.

·         Europe’s Group II prices weaken vs light-grade prices in US and Asia in recent weeks but hold firm vs heavy-grade prices in those markets.

·         Firm imports and prospect of steady-to-high regional output would follow strong pick-up in Europe’s Group II supply in Aug 2025.

·         Europe’s Group II prices hold firm through Q3 2025 even with higher supply and seasonal slowdown in demand.

·         Group II price-strength could reflect Group II’s growing market share relative to other grades like Group I base oils.

·         Group II price-strength could reflect unusually large rise in Netherlands’ exports to Singapore in Aug 2025.

·         Any repeat of such flows less likely in coming months following start-up of new Group II unit in Singapore in Sept 2025.

·         Any such slowdown in flows, combined with seasonal dip in demand at year-end, could put pressure on fundamentals if supply holds at higher levels through Q4 2025.

·         Europe’s Group I/II/III base oils supply combined rises to one-year high in Aug 2025.

·         Rise in supply, weak regional demand and slowdown in base oils exports triggers surge in supply-surplus to highest level in four years.

·         Dynamic highlights speed of rise in surplus supplies amid higher output, less feasible arbitrage opportunities and weaker demand.

·         Europe’s Group I base oils price-premium to VGO faces more pressure than Group II and Group III prices during Q3 2025.

·         Weaker Group I price-differentials suggest impact of surge in surplus has largest impact on Group I base oils market.