· US base oils demand could be more muted amid expectations of rise in domestic supply over coming weeks following completion of plant-maintenance work.· Sufficient availability of supply in recent weeks, even during plant-shutdown, points to signs of already-slower demand during that period.· Expected rise in supply would coincide with time of year when domestic consumption typically slows anyway..· Rise in supply and seasonal slowdown in demand could raise expectations of adjustment in prices to reflect weaker fundamentals.· Any such expectations could add to slowdown in demand and buyers’ focus on maintaining low stocks.· Weaker domestic fundamentals increase importance of overseas markets to absorb likely rise in surplus supply.· US Group II base oils export price-discount to domestic Europe prices continues to narrow in early-Nov 2025, especially for light grades..· Narrower discount and prospect of seasonal slowdown in demand in Europe curb attraction of moving more shipments to that market..· Markets like Middle East and India could remain more viable outlets, with CFR Group II price-premiums to US prices holding at more elevated levels, especially for heavy grades..· Demand in Latin America could stay more muted as buyers seek to maintain low inventories or work down existing stocks.· Argentina’s base oils stocks rise in Sept 2025 to second-highest level in more than three years as supply far outpaces demand..· Buyers likely to focus on working down those high inventories before seeking additional volumes.· Concern about exposure to lower prices adds to incentive to clear existing supplies first..· Europe’s base oils demand likely to stay muted as buyers focus on maintaining lean stocks ahead of seasonal slowdown at year-end.· Steady fall in outright base oils prices in recent weeks adds to incentive to hold back until prices show signs of bottoming out.· Weaker domestic prices cut further their price-differential to export prices..· Dynamic flips domestic SN 500 price to discount to export price for first time in more than three years.· Domestic brightstock price-discount to export price moves to widest level in more than three years.· Weak domestic demand raises prospect of rise in surplus supply to clear through export markets.· Weakness of domestic prices adds to incentive to maximise exports.· Europe Group I SN 500 export price flips back to premium to CFR UAE price in early-Nov 2025..· Firmer export-price differential complicates arbitrage shipments to markets like Middle East and India.· Weak domestic demand and less feasible arbitrage opportunities could speed up build-up of surplus supplies in Europe. .Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 10 November.Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 3 November.US’ August base oils supply rises.Argentina’s Sept lube demand falls
