Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 10 Jul '26

The full impact of the Middle East disruption became visible across global markets as the last in-transit cargoes cleared, exposing widening shortages in premium-grade supply.

China delivered the market's strongest supply response, lifting Group III output to a 15-month high in June, but the additional production remained insufficient to replace lost Middle East volumes.

Asia's export recovery stayed constrained as weak Singapore exports offset stronger Chinese production, limiting surplus supplies available to overseas buyers.

India's weaker lubricant demand pointed to inventory drawdowns rather than weaker underlying consumption, helping ease pressure on available supplies.

Europe retained more premium-grade production within the region, reducing availability for export markets such as Turkey and extending the disruption beyond the Middle East itself.

US imports fell to a six-year low in May as Middle East shipments almost disappeared, increasing reliance on domestic production and tightening spot export availability for overseas buyers.

The market entered the third quarter with Group III supply increasingly dependent on a smaller group of alternative producers, leaving upcoming refinery maintenance likely to tighten availability further.