· Global base oils prices mostly extend fall vs feedstock/competing fuel prices amid sustained rise in crude oil prices.· Any extension of crude oil prices holding at current levels or rising further would add to squeeze on base oils margins, especially for light grades.· Balanced-to-tight base oils supply would give refiners more leverage to respond to any sustained squeeze on margins.· Persistent availability of surplus supply would curb that leverage.· Dynamic increases importance for refiners to avoid build-up of surplus volumes..· FOB Asia base oils prices fall versus Singapore gasoil prices..· Group I/II heavy-grade price-premium to gasoil falls to multi-month low but remains higher than usual.· Ongoing surplus availability of heavy grades could limit refiners’ leverage to adjust prices to reverse recent pressure on margins.· Group I/II light-grade price-premium to gasoil falls to level that could prompt refiners to consider focusing on producing more diesel or heavy-grade base oils instead.· Signs of tighter availability of light-grade base oils give refiners more leverage to adjust prices to support firmer margins..· Any such move to support firmer margins and supply in Q4 2025 would coincide with a time of year when global market typically faces rise in surplus supply.· Domestic China Group II N150 price-premium to Shandong diesel price falls to lowest in more than a month..· Domestic N150 price-premium fell sharply around same time a year earlier.· Fall in base oils margin points to change in supply-demand fundamentals.· Fall in base oils margin suggests boost from seasonal rise in demand has peaked..· CFR India Group II N70 price-premium to Singapore gasoil price falls to lowest in more than two months..· N70 price-premium falls because of higher Singapore gasoil prices rather than sudden change in supply-demand fundamentals.· N70 price-premium remains relatively firm, especially compared with slump in margins in June 2025.· Strength of demand in India and state of supply in Asia likely to determine refiners’ leverage to adjust prices in response to any sustained rise in gasoil prices.· India's demand shows signs of holding firm. · Asia’s supply shows signs of rising in market where CFR India N70 price-premium remains relatively firm for time of year.· Dynamic could complicate any immediate moves by refiners to adjust prices in response..· Europe’s domestic Group I brightstock price-premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) falls to lowest since beginning of Q2 2025..· Even at lower level, brightstock price-premium to VGO remains unusually high vs historic levels and vs brightstock margins in other regions.· Strength of brightstock margins suggests that supply-demand fundamentals remain unusually firm.· Strength of brightstock margins incentivize refiners to maximise output of the product.· Dynamic increases importance of demand staying firm and global supply-demand fundamentals staying tight.· Any change in those dynamics could leave brightstock margins facing further pressure..· US Group II light-grade export price-premium to VGO edges higher, holding at higher end of narrow range since mid-July 2025..· Group II light-grade domestic price-premium to VGO holds at lower end of narrow range since mid-July 2025.· Dynamic points to firmer supply-demand fundamentals in overseas markets than in domestic market.· Relatively firm, rangebound Group II light-grade export price-premium to VGO incentivizes refiners to maintain high output..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 29 September.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 29 September.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
