Asia’s lube demand rose to a four-month high in October, mostly on the back of a sustained rise in consumption in India.The region’s base oils supply also rose in October and at a faster pace than the region’s demand.The surplus of supply over demand duly rose and faced the prospect of extending that rise over the following months.Asia’s lube consumption of more than 805,000 tonnes in October rose from more than 795,000 tonnes in September and by 5% from year-earlier levels, government and industry data showed.The volume was the highest since June. It also rose from year-earlier levels for the first time since June.Demand got a boost mostly because of the ongoing rise in India’s lube consumption.Consumption in northeast Asia and southeast Asia was more mixed.An ongoing slowdown in Thailand’s lube consumption contrasted with a sharp rebound in demand in the Philippines.In northeast Asia, Japan’s lube demand fell for an eighth month in October, while South Korea’s consumption rose for the first time in three months.The rise in total lube demand raised the prospect of Asia’s base oils supply struggling to cover regional requirements as maintenance work at several plants cut their output in the month of October.Supply already struggled to keep pace with demand in September even ahead of the peak maintenance period.Asia’s base oils supply instead rose to more than 910,000 tonnes in October, from less than 880,000 tonnes the previous month.Supply got a boost from higher output from Japan especially, as well as a pick-up in volumes from Thailand and Indonesia.South Korea’s base oils output was also higher than expected. Its output fell in October, but less than usual during a round of plant maintenance.The larger rise in supply left Asia with a pick-up in surplus volumes in October.The dynamic meant the month of September was the period when supply-tightness peaked in the Asia-Pacific region.It also raised the prospect of surplus supply continuing to rise through the rest of the fourth quarter.Supply was likely to get a boost during that period following the completion of plant maintenance work, while demand faced a seasonal slowdown..Thailand’s October lube demand falls.Japan’s October base oils output rises.Asia’s lube demand likely to revive from mid-Q1 2025.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
