Asia’s lube demand could stay more muted at the beginning of next year before reviving from the middle of the first quarter.Demand then faces a typical seasonal rise from the end of the first quarter and into the second quarter of the year.The dynamic is likely to leave base oils supply more readily available over the coming months, before tightening at the end of the first quarter.The region’s lube consumption, excluding China, is likely to rise to around 2.32 million tonnes in the first three months of next year, according to the Baseoilnews short-term outlook.The volume would be up from less than 2.28 million tonnes during the fourth quarter of this year.Demand is then likely to rise to more than 2.45 million tonnes in the second quarter of the year.Asia’s lube demand typically rises more strongly in the month of February than in January when the Lunar New Year falls in the month of January.The opposite trend happens when the Lunar New Year falls in the month of February.The festival falls at end-January this year, after taking place around mid-February last year. A slower rise in demand early next year could add to a pick-up in surplus base oils supplies in the region.Asia’s base oils prices remained firm relative to feedstock and gasoil prices so far in the fourth quarter of the year.The strong margins pointed to still-tight supply-demand fundamentals.A stronger rise in Asia’s lube consumption after the Lunar New Year holidays would by contrast squeeze the availability of surplus supply at that time.Planned base oils plant maintenance work in the region at the end of the first quarter could compound any such supply tightness..Asia’s September lube demand falls
