· Global base oils values rise versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, ICIS data shows.· Firmer light-grade premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices incentivizes refiners to maintain or increase output.· Steady or higher output would come at a time when there are fewer outlets for surplus supplies following Mexico’s move to tighten rules on oil products imports from US.· Asia Group II base oil premium to regional gasoil prices rises to highest since early July 2023.· Asia Group II base oil premium rises close to year-to-date average of $100/t.· Firmer premium incentivizes refiners to maintain or raise output.· Asia Group I base oil premium rises to highest since 2H July 2023..· Asia Group I premium remains well below year-to-date average of around $80/t.· Still-weak premium curbs incentive for refiners to maintain or raise output.· Domestic China Group II light-grade premium to Shandong diesel prices rises to highest since 1H July 2023..· Domestic China Group II light-grade premium to diesel matches year-earlier levels, when the premium extended gains through Nov 2022 and early Dec 2022.· Last year’s domestic China light-grade premium rose because of rising outright base oils prices.· This year’s domestic light-grade premium rose more because of lower diesel prices.· Firmer base oil premium, and China’s weaker diesel premium to crude oil, could incentivize refiners to increase base oils output.· Fob Europe Group I price premium to gasoil rises to highest since July 2023.· Fob Europe Group I premium to gasoil price rises well above year-to-date average.· Domestic Europe Group I light-grade premium to VGO rises to highest since July 2023, holds above year-to-date average.· Domestic Europe Group II light-grade premium to VGO climbs to highest since end-Aug 2023, stays close to $100/t below year-to-date average of around $535/t..· Diverging price-margin dynamic between Europe Group I and Group II prices could put more pressure on Group II prices to respond to move closer to average levels.· Europe Group III (low) price premium to VGO holds close to lowest since end-Q2 2022.· US Group II light-grade export prices maintain firm premium to heating oil, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.· US Group II light-grade posted-price premium to heating oil rises close to highest since Q2 2023.· US Group II light-grade domestic premium to VGO rises to highest since May 2023..· US Group II light-grade posted price premium to VGO rises to highest since Q1 2023.· US Group III premium to VGO steadies, well up from one-year low in Sep 2023, still well below year-to-date average..Global base oils - week of Oct 30: Demand outlook
· Global base oils values rise versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, ICIS data shows.· Firmer light-grade premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices incentivizes refiners to maintain or increase output.· Steady or higher output would come at a time when there are fewer outlets for surplus supplies following Mexico’s move to tighten rules on oil products imports from US.· Asia Group II base oil premium to regional gasoil prices rises to highest since early July 2023.· Asia Group II base oil premium rises close to year-to-date average of $100/t.· Firmer premium incentivizes refiners to maintain or raise output.· Asia Group I base oil premium rises to highest since 2H July 2023..· Asia Group I premium remains well below year-to-date average of around $80/t.· Still-weak premium curbs incentive for refiners to maintain or raise output.· Domestic China Group II light-grade premium to Shandong diesel prices rises to highest since 1H July 2023..· Domestic China Group II light-grade premium to diesel matches year-earlier levels, when the premium extended gains through Nov 2022 and early Dec 2022.· Last year’s domestic China light-grade premium rose because of rising outright base oils prices.· This year’s domestic light-grade premium rose more because of lower diesel prices.· Firmer base oil premium, and China’s weaker diesel premium to crude oil, could incentivize refiners to increase base oils output.· Fob Europe Group I price premium to gasoil rises to highest since July 2023.· Fob Europe Group I premium to gasoil price rises well above year-to-date average.· Domestic Europe Group I light-grade premium to VGO rises to highest since July 2023, holds above year-to-date average.· Domestic Europe Group II light-grade premium to VGO climbs to highest since end-Aug 2023, stays close to $100/t below year-to-date average of around $535/t..· Diverging price-margin dynamic between Europe Group I and Group II prices could put more pressure on Group II prices to respond to move closer to average levels.· Europe Group III (low) price premium to VGO holds close to lowest since end-Q2 2022.· US Group II light-grade export prices maintain firm premium to heating oil, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.· US Group II light-grade posted-price premium to heating oil rises close to highest since Q2 2023.· US Group II light-grade domestic premium to VGO rises to highest since May 2023..· US Group II light-grade posted price premium to VGO rises to highest since Q1 2023.· US Group III premium to VGO steadies, well up from one-year low in Sep 2023, still well below year-to-date average..Global base oils - week of Oct 30: Demand outlook
