Global base oils - week of Jan 15: Price outlook - margins

Global base oils - week of Jan 15: Price outlook - margins

·        Global base oils export prices fall or stay weak versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, curbing incentive to produce additional supplies, ICIS data shows.

·        Global domestic base oils prices mostly hold steady-to-firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, incentivizing refiners to maintain firm output levels and to target domestic markets.

·        Asia’s base oils price premium to regional gasoil falls, especially for Group II supplies.

Group II falls more
Group II falls moreICIS

·        Fob Asia Group I base oils premium to gasoil edges lower, remains relatively firm in narrow range since 2H Nov 2023.

·        Fob Asia Group II premium to gasoil falls to three-month low, to levels that incentivize refiners to produce sufficient volumes to cover term commitments only.

·        Domestic China Group II light-grade base oil premium to Shandong diesel prices extends rise to highest since July 2023.

Premium extends rise
Premium extends rise

·        Domestic Group II premium rises even amid signs of strong pick-up in shipments from Taiwan and healthy supplies from domestic producers.

·        Rising price premium and healthy availability points to sufficient demand to sustain the premium.

·        Cfr India N70 premium to regional gasoil prices resumes slide, dips to lowest since end-Sep 2023.

Premium extends fall
Premium extends fallICIS

·        Sliding premium to gasoil cuts attraction of moving more very-light grade base oils to India, boosts attraction of pouring base oils back into diesel pool.

·        Europe’s Group I export bright stock price premium to gasoil falls to lowest in almost a year; SN 500 premium falls to lowest since early Oct 2023.

·        Fall in export price premium incentivizes refiners to cut output to cover term commitments only.

·        Europe’s Group I domestic price premium to gasoil holds in narrow range since mid-Nov 2023, at levels that incentivize steady output.

·        Steady domestic premium and falling export price premium add to incentive for refiners to prioritise domestic market.

·        Any such move could add to supply in domestic market.

·        Europe’s Group II domestic light-grade price premium to VGO steadies close to six-month high.

Group II holds firm
Group II holds firmICIS

·        Firm Group II premium incentivizes refiners to move more supplies to the region.

·        Europe’s Group III base oils price premium to VGO holds in narrow range since start of Q4 2023.

·        US Group II export prices stay unusually weak vs heating oil, incentivizing refiners to cut surplus supply for export market.

·        US Group II domestic price premium to VGO continues to edge lower but stays relatively firm.

Domestic premiums slip
Domestic premiums slipICIS

·        US Group II posted prices hold firm vs VGO.

·        Relative strength of domestic prices curbs pressure on refiners to cut supply.

Global base oils - week of Jan 15: Price outlook - margins
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