· Global base oils prices rise relative to competing and feedstock prices, ICIS data shows.· Trend reflects relatively steady base oils prices and sliding crude oil/diesel prices.· Firmer base oils values incentivize refiners to maintain or increase output.· Firmer base oils values give refiners room to adjust prices if they need to clear or prevent supply-build.· Base oils values could take longer to react to lower feedstock/diesel prices amid more limited surplus supply in Europe and Asia.· Fob Asia Group I light-neutral prices rise to premium to gasoil prices for first time since end-Jun 2023.· Fob Asia Group I bright stock premium to gasoil rises to highest since 1H Jun 2023.· Fob Asia Group I premium to gasoil rises to more than $150/t, up from average levels of close to $80/t so far in 2023..· Fob Asia Group II light-grade premium to gasoil rises to highest since early-Jun 2023.· Fob Asia Group II premium to gasoil rises to around $180/t, well above average of around $100/t so far this year.· Domestic China Group II light-grade price premium to Shandong diesel prices holds close to highest since 1H July 2023..· Domestic China Group II light-grade premium almost matches year-earlier levels, and matches year-earlier rebound during Q4 2022.· Domestic Group II light-grade premium to diesel rebounds even as outright prices hold in narrow range since end-Sep 2023.· Domestic Group II light-grade premium to diesel by contrast rebounded in Q4 2022 because of surge in outright prices.· Cfr India Group II very-light grade base oil premium to regional gasoil prices extends rise to highest since end-May 2023..· Rising premium incentivizes refiners to direct more light grades to India rather than into diesel pool..· Fob Europe Group I prices extend rise versus gasoil to levels well above average levels so far this year.· Domestic Europe Group I light-grade premium to VGO rises above $390/t, highest since early Aug 2023, up from average levels of less than $350/t so far this year.· Domestic Europe Group III (low) price premium to VGO rises to highest since mid-Sep 2023..· Europe Group III (low) 4cst premium of close to $900/t holds relatively steady since Sep 2023, stays well below average levels of around $1,270/t so far this year..· US Group II export light-grade premium to heating oil extends rise, close to highest this year.· US Group II export light-grade price premium contrasts with average of discount to heating oil so far this year.· Higher base oil premium gives refiners room to adjust prices to make arbitrage opportunities more feasible if required.· US domestic Group II light-grade premium to VGO rises to more than $540/t, highest since 1H May 2023..· Domestic Group II light-grade premium to VGO extends rise to levels above average of around $510/t so far this year.· US Group II light-grade posted price premium to VGO rises to highest since Q1 2023.· US domestic Group III 4cst premium to VGO rises to around $1,100/t, highest since mid-Aug 2023.· US Group III 4cst premium to VGO continues to lag average of around $1,220/t so far this year..Global base oils - week of Nov 6: Price outlook - margins
· Global base oils prices rise relative to competing and feedstock prices, ICIS data shows.· Trend reflects relatively steady base oils prices and sliding crude oil/diesel prices.· Firmer base oils values incentivize refiners to maintain or increase output.· Firmer base oils values give refiners room to adjust prices if they need to clear or prevent supply-build.· Base oils values could take longer to react to lower feedstock/diesel prices amid more limited surplus supply in Europe and Asia.· Fob Asia Group I light-neutral prices rise to premium to gasoil prices for first time since end-Jun 2023.· Fob Asia Group I bright stock premium to gasoil rises to highest since 1H Jun 2023.· Fob Asia Group I premium to gasoil rises to more than $150/t, up from average levels of close to $80/t so far in 2023..· Fob Asia Group II light-grade premium to gasoil rises to highest since early-Jun 2023.· Fob Asia Group II premium to gasoil rises to around $180/t, well above average of around $100/t so far this year.· Domestic China Group II light-grade price premium to Shandong diesel prices holds close to highest since 1H July 2023..· Domestic China Group II light-grade premium almost matches year-earlier levels, and matches year-earlier rebound during Q4 2022.· Domestic Group II light-grade premium to diesel rebounds even as outright prices hold in narrow range since end-Sep 2023.· Domestic Group II light-grade premium to diesel by contrast rebounded in Q4 2022 because of surge in outright prices.· Cfr India Group II very-light grade base oil premium to regional gasoil prices extends rise to highest since end-May 2023..· Rising premium incentivizes refiners to direct more light grades to India rather than into diesel pool..· Fob Europe Group I prices extend rise versus gasoil to levels well above average levels so far this year.· Domestic Europe Group I light-grade premium to VGO rises above $390/t, highest since early Aug 2023, up from average levels of less than $350/t so far this year.· Domestic Europe Group III (low) price premium to VGO rises to highest since mid-Sep 2023..· Europe Group III (low) 4cst premium of close to $900/t holds relatively steady since Sep 2023, stays well below average levels of around $1,270/t so far this year..· US Group II export light-grade premium to heating oil extends rise, close to highest this year.· US Group II export light-grade price premium contrasts with average of discount to heating oil so far this year.· Higher base oil premium gives refiners room to adjust prices to make arbitrage opportunities more feasible if required.· US domestic Group II light-grade premium to VGO rises to more than $540/t, highest since 1H May 2023..· Domestic Group II light-grade premium to VGO extends rise to levels above average of around $510/t so far this year.· US Group II light-grade posted price premium to VGO rises to highest since Q1 2023.· US domestic Group III 4cst premium to VGO rises to around $1,100/t, highest since mid-Aug 2023.· US Group III 4cst premium to VGO continues to lag average of around $1,220/t so far this year..Global base oils - week of Nov 6: Price outlook - margins