· Global base oils prices recover vs feedstock/gasoil prices after crude oil prices reverse recent gains.· Firmer base oils price-differentials ease pressure on refiners to trim run-rates at time of year when supply often starts to outpace demand.· Firmer price-differentials coincide with lighter round of plant-maintenance in coming weeks vs H1 2025.· Firmer price-differentials coincide with recent and upcoming start-up of new base oils production-capacity in Asia.· Firmer base oil margins and prospect of healthy availability of supply could add to incentive for buyers to keep stocks at lower levels..· FOB Asia base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil edges up..· Group I/II heavy-grade price-premium to gasoil stays well above typical levels even if down from recent highs.· Light-grade price-premium returns to range it held in for most of last two months..· Steady-to-high price-premiums sustain incentive for refiners to maintain high output, especially of heavy grades.· China’s domestic Group II N150 price-premium to Shandong diesel price recovers after dipping in H2 Sept 2025..· Price-premium stays well below peak-levels in H1 Sept 2025.· Any extension of recovery in price-premium could point to change in supply-demand fundamentals at time of year when they typically start to weaken.· Any resumption of fall in price-premium would add to signs of waning support from recent seasonal rise in demand.· CFR India Group II N70 price-premium to Singapore gasoil recovers, staying high even if still down from peak levels this year..· Persistently-firm N70 price-premium throughout this year points to strong demand.· Firm price-premium sustains incentive for Asia refiners to line up more very-light-grade base oils shipments to move to India.· Rise in CFR India N70 price-premium in Aug 2025 coincides with fall in India’s imports of very-light-grade base oils to six-month low that month.· Still-firm N70 price-premium precedes expected start-up of new production capacity in India later in Q4 2025. · Europe’s Group II light-grade price-premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) holds firm..· Firm Group II price-premium contrasts with domestic Group I SN 150 price-premium hovering close to lowest level in recent years.· Contrasting trends between Group I and Group II price-premiums since May 2025 point to diverging supply-demand fundamentals between the grades that so far show little sign of changing.· Even so, Group I SN 150 premium to VGO rebounded strongly in recent years each time that it fell close to current levels.· US Group II light-grade export price-premium to VGO extends stronger rise in recent weeks vs other grades..· US Group II light-grade export-price premium to VGO extends stronger rise in recent weeks vs other regions..· Outperformance of US Group II light-grade export prices vs other grades and regions points to tighter supply-demand fundamentals for the grade.· Outperformance of Group II light-grade export prices curbs incentive for refiners to adjust run-rates..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 6 October.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 6 October.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
