Global base oils – week May 9: Supply

· Strong diesel price, tight supply continue to incentivize refiners to produce more of the motor fuel.

· Tight feedstock supply compounds refiners’ challenge.

· Prospect of EU sanctions on Russian crude/diesel would compound those dynamics.

· Europe base oil supply stays lower than usual, even without loss of Russian shipments.

· Ongoing/upcoming plant maintenance in Europe compounds supply tightness.

· US supply stays lower than expected, even before sanctions on Russian feedstock supply came into effect.

· Asia-Pacific supply had already been more balanced than US/Europe.

· Completion of plant shutdowns in Asia-Pacific raise prospect of pick-up in additional supplies.

· Singapore base oil exports holding steady in recent weeks, still well below pre-Covid 19 levels.

· Spore exports to China slow sharply in recent weeks.

· Spore exports to India rise in recent weeks.

· Spore exports to less regular outlets like Malta and UAE rise in recent weeks.

· Spore sees sharp drop in supplies from Japan for second week.

· Spore takes delivery in early May of first shipment from Thailand in more than two months.

· Spore takes delivery in early May of cargo from Saudi Arabia – these shipments are increasingly regular.

· Cargo loadings from Taiwan gather pace since start of May.

· Cargo reaching Lagos in early May, originating from Svetly. Flows from Baltic region to West Africa likely to slow.

· Slowdown in cargo arrivals to India over coming week.