· High energy prices, Ukraine war, China lockdowns, supply-chain bottlenecks weigh on economic growth.· Global economic growth slows in April to slowest since Q2 2020.· Brazil and India see stronger growth in April. · Germany’s industrial orders, industrial production fall in March.· UK car sales fall 16pc in April yoy.· UK’s 2022 car sales forecast cut by 9pc amid shortage of parts.· France’s April car sales fall in April for 11th straight month.· Diverging lube demand growth between Europe and Brazil/India mirrors relative economic performance of those different regions..· Relaxation of Covid-19 containment measures boost services sector.· Stricter Covid-19 measures in China have opposite effect - China’s April services PMI falls to second-lowest since 2005.· Global manufacturing and services input costs rise at highest rate since 2008.· Blenders’ Q1 earnings results reflect moves to raise selling prices – even if not enough to cover higher costs.· Base oils demand remains firm in Europe because supply still lags weaker demand.· Base oils demand in US likely to get support from blenders stockbuilding ahead of Atlantic hurricane season and focus on security of supply.· Base oils demand in Latin America likely to get support from firm lube demand, limited regional supply.· Base oils demand in Asia-Pacific likely to be more mixed.· Chinese base oil demand likely to mostly remain weak, with limited support from stock-replenishment.· Indian demand for very-light grade base oils typically eases when its discount to retail diesel prices narrows. The discount is narrow.· Term prices linked to rising diesel prices are getting less competitive in markets like Asia, where spot prices are lower. Trend could incentivize term buyers to trim their requirements.· Mideast Gulf base oil demand likely to improve following end of Ramadan.
