Taiwan Base Oils Exports Hit 17-Month Low; Supply Risk Rises

Taiwan’s base oils exports fell to a seventeen-month low in February, with shipments to India pausing for the first time in more than two years and adding to that market’s exposure to supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict.

Taiwan’s total base oils exports fell to 35,000 tonnes in February, down from 58,000 tonnes in January and more than 67,000 tonnes in December 2025, Customs Administration data showed.

The scale of the dip likely reflected the timing of the Lunar New Year. The holidays fell in February this year and in January last year, when exports posted a similar drop.

Any extension of the slowdown through March would coincide with the start of plant maintenance in South Korea and growing pressure on feedstock supplies across the region.

Key Highlights

·         Exports to India paused in February, halting for the first time in 28 months following typical monthly shipments of more than 12,000 tonnes over the past year.

·         Exports to China held relatively firm, with shipments of 16,100 tonnes staying above the 2025 monthly average of 14,700 tonnes.

·         Exports to Southeast Asia also held steady, with shipments of 13,800 tonnes remaining above typical monthly levels in 2025.

·         Exports to the UAE paused for the second time in three months, curbing the need to redirect volumes to other outlets.

·         Exports to Pakistan held firm, extending an increasingly regular flow of shipments to that market since last October.

·         Heavy-grade base oils exports fell more sharply than light grades, with their share of total shipments dropping to 41% from 53% in January.

Market Repercussions

Steady flows to China, Southeast Asia and Pakistan pointed to those shipments consisting mostly of term supplies.

The pause in flows to India could reflect one-off factors like cargo-loading timing during the Lunar New Year period.

Any extension of the pause into March would point to longer-term factors affecting flows to one of Taiwan’s most consistent export outlets at a time when Middle East disruptions are already squeezing India’s base oils availability from other sources.

Reduced shipments to the UAE in recent months removed a market that had been a regular outlet for spot cargoes. Limited access to that market several months ago would have complicated the removal of excess supply.

The more immediate challenge for Taiwan could be maintaining regular shipments to term buyers in other markets as surging diesel prices and disruption to Middle East crude supplies threaten to reduce base oils production across the region.