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Exports to India rebound, lifting full-year exports to a four-year high
Exports to the UAE fall to a nine-month low after a wave of Asia shipments left the region well supplied
India's role as a key outlet for South Korea shipments would magnify the impact of any demand slowdown
South Korea’s base oils exports to India rebounded in December, tapping the country’s sustained rise in consumption and flatlining domestic supply, while shipments to the UAE slumped.
Total exports to India recovered to 100,700 tonnes in December, up from a fourteen-month low of less than 67,500 tonnes in November and 28% higher year on year, Korea Customs data showed.
The rebound lifted total 2025 exports to India to a four-year high of 1.16 million tonnes. The volume was also the second-highest on record.
Exports to the UAE by contrast fell to the lowest level since March, ending a three-month surge in shipments that overlapped with regional plant maintenance during the fourth quarter.
Key Highlights
· Quarterly shipments to India stayed consistently high throughout 2025, contrasting with more volatile flows in 2023 and 2024 and helping to meet the country’s growing base oils requirements.
· The strong rise in exports to India in 2024 and 2025 could prove harder to repeat in 2026, with new domestic production expected to cover a larger share of local demand.
· South Korea’s base oils exports to the UAE fell to a nine-month low, following a wave of Asia shipments in the second half of 2025 that left regional inventories well supplied.
Market Repercussions
Any slowdown in India’s demand for imported base oils would pose a challenge for South Korea, which lacks another market of comparable size to absorb such large volumes.
The US faced such a scenario in recent months following a slump in exports to Mexico. It was able to partially cushion the impact by boosting shipments to other markets such as South America and Europe.
The wave of base oils shipments from Asia to the Middle East during the second half of 2025 helped to clear surplus supply before year-end.
Firm demand in Asia and a jump in South Korea’s shipments to China in December then helped offset the expected slowdown in flows to the Middle East.
The slowdown in demand in the Middle East is likely to extend into early 2026, increasing the importance of demand in Asia and China staying strong.
