Exports to northeast, southeast Asia account for larger-than-usual share of total shipments amid firmer regional demandFirmer regional fundamentals cut surplus, curbing need to target more distant marketsExports fall to ten-year low in 2025 even with recovery in shipments during second half of the year .South Korea’s base oils exports rose in December, driven by a recovery in shipments to northeast and southeast Asia, where demand held firm through year-end.Total exports reached 350,000 tonnes in December, up from 332,000 tonnes in November and by 21% year on year, Korea Customs Service data showed.The rise capped a steady improvement in shipments during the second half of the year, but it was insufficient to prevent South Korea’s total base oils exports in 2025 from falling to their lowest level in a decade..Key Highlights· Total base oils exports of 4.13 million tonnes in 2025 fell for a fourth straight year to the lowest since 2015, as a raft of plant maintenance curbed supply during the first half of the year..· Fourth-quarter base oils exports of 1.08 million tonnes rose to the highest since the beginning of 2024, reflecting the recovery in shipments during the second half of the year.· Exports to northeast Asia climbed to a twenty-one-month high, underpinned by a jump in shipments to China, even as its domestic output surged in December..China’s December Base Oils Output Hits 14-Month High on Group II.· Exports to southeast Asia rebounded from an eleven-month low in November, supporting markets that faced tighter inventories late in the year..Asia’s November Base Oils Supply Rises, Surplus Still Tightens.· Northeast and southeast Asia combined accounted for 47% of South Korea’s total exports in December, the highest share in eleven months and well up the typical range of closer to 40%..Market RepercussionsThe pick-up in South Korea’s exports into Asia coincided with sustained regional demand growth, boosting requirements for replenishment supplies.Higher exports and stronger demand helped slow a build-up of surplus volumes at year-end, easing pressure on South Korean refiners to divert volumes to more distant markets.The strong recovery in Asia’s base oils prices relative to gasoil prices during the final weeks of last year reinforced signs of more balanced fundamentals during that period.
