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Base oils exports to the US edged down in February, falling for the fourth time in five months and extending a three-year slide
A pause in Middle East Group III flows from late February left a supply shortfall, increasing reliance on alternative sources such as South Korea
Any recovery in shipments could begin to reverse South Korea’s declining share of the US Group III market
South Korea’s base oils exports to the US edged down in February, extending a three-year slide as a pause in Middle East Group III flows increased the need for alternative supplies in the US market.
Total base oils exports to the US fell to 49,400 tonnes in February, down from close to 55,000 tonnes in January and 6% lower than year-earlier levels, Korea Customs data showed.
A sustained fall in South Korea’s base oils exports to the US in recent years reflected growing competition from Group III supplies sourced from the Middle East.
That region’s growing share of the US market magnified the impact of the sudden pause in shipments from end-February, leaving a large shortfall and an opportunity for South Korean supplies to fill some of the gap.
Key Highlights
· February exports to the US fell for the fourth time in five months, after dropping in 2025 for a third straight year to the lowest in more than a decade.
· Exports of 520,000 tonnes to the US in 2025 fell from close to 740,000 tonnes in 2022, pointing to the scale of additional volumes that could move to the US if term commitments allowed.
· The Middle East accounted for 44% of US base oils imports in 2025, the second-highest share on record, even as plant maintenance in the region cut supplies.
· South Korea accounted for 26% of US imports in 2025, the lowest share in four years.
Market Repercussions
A larger-than-usual volume of shipments from South Korea was already lined up in March bound for the US.
Even so, South Korean refiners faced limits on how quickly they could sustain a pick-up in shipments, with existing term commitments to buyers in other markets curbing their flexibility.
Any drop in run rates or plant maintenance would cut available supply further.
Beyond the near-term constraints, the sudden loss of the Middle East shipments and an awareness of the scale of that exposure added to the case for US buyers to diversify Group III sourcing toward other suppliers such as South Korea.
