US Dec Base Oils Imports Rebound, 2025 Shipments Hit Decade High

US base oils imports rebounded in December, recovering from a nine-month low in November and lifting total 2025 shipments to their highest in more than a decade.

Total imports rose to 1.50 million barrels (211,000 tonnes) in December, up 58% year on year and climbing from 954,000 barrels in November, Census Bureau data showed.

Most of the volumes consisted of Group III base oils, highlighting the US market’s continued reliance on overseas supplies for the premium-grade base stocks even as domestic output rises.

Key Highlights

·         Fourth-quarter imports rose 3% year on year to 3.76 million barrels, extending the growth streak for a seventh straight quarter.

·         Shipments from Canada almost doubled in 2025 to their highest in more than a decade, accounting for most of the annual increase.

·         Full-year imports from Bahrain and UAE fell 7% amid mid-year plant-maintenance but remained the second-highest in more than a decade.

·         Shipments from South Korea held firm, edging down slightly from 2024 despite growing competition from Canadian and domestic supplies.

Market Repercussions

Record-high US base oils imports coincided with rising domestic Group III output, adding supply into a market where lubricants demand faced a multi-year slowdown to mid-2025.

The combination pointed to a surge in consumption of Group III base oils as a share of total base oils demand, driving a wave of investment in domestic Group III production capacity.

Some of that production is already operating, with additional capacity scheduled to come online by year-end.

A sustained rise in domestic Group III supply could cut the US’ requirements for imported volumes, leaving shipments targeting other outlets.

The sharp rise in shipments from Canada in 2025, combined with the dip in flows from South Korea and the Middle East, could be an early sign of such a transition.