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Singapore's four-week base oils exports held near multi-year lows for a fourth straight week despite signs of a partial recovery in June from May's six-year low
Imports stayed unusually high, with South Korean shipments in June set to reach their highest in more than a year
The pattern pointed to regional competitors gaining market share at Singapore's expense while the city-state's output remained lower than usual
Singapore's base oils exports held near multi-year lows in the four weeks to 24 June, increasing the risk of losing market share to rival suppliers whose shipments held firmer during the recent supply disruption.
Four-week exports held below 115,000 tonnes in the week to 24 June for a fourth straight week, Enterprise Singapore data showed.
Exports for June were set to recover from May's six-year low but remain far below the monthly average of around 180,000 tonnes during the year to April.
Weekly exports slipped back below 25,000 tonnes, after climbing to almost 50,000 tonnes the previous week. The slowdown extended a pattern seen since early May in which stronger shipments lasted little more than a week.
The inability to sustain any rebound pointed to lower production levels and incentivised domestic and regional buyers to source volumes from alternative suppliers.
Four-week imports exceeded 85,000 tonnes, pointing to inflows holding close to or above 70,000 tonnes in June for a third straight month. They had averaged around 45,000 tonnes/month in the five months to March.
Arrivals from South Korea accelerated further, while supplies from China remained elevated.
The divergence between falling exports and rising imports pointed to buyers shifting away from Singapore volumes toward alternative sources.
The longer exports remained below typical levels, the more entrenched that shift was likely to become.
Key Highlights
Four-week exports to China, Southeast Asia and India all remained well below typical levels even as they held above recent lows.
The arrival of an unusually large volume from South Korea was set to lift Singapore's June imports from the Northeast Asian country to their highest level in more than a year.
Recent import flows included volumes from Europe, the US and China alongside the surge in South Korean flows, pointing to sufficient supply in those markets to support ongoing shipments to Singapore.
Market Repercussions
Singapore's export recovery continued to stall while alternative suppliers expanded their presence in regional markets.
The longer exports remained below normal, the greater the risk that temporary replacement volumes would become longer-term market share gains for competitors.
South Korea was already emerging as the main beneficiary, with rising exports and higher domestic output allowing refiners to replace lost Singapore and Middle East supply across Asia.
