Singapore’s December Exports Hold Firm As Trade Flows Shift

Singapore’s base oils exports held firm in December, supported by a sustained rise in shipments from domestic production following the start-up of new Group II capacity at the end of the third quarter.

Total exports of 175,000 tonnes in December slipped from more than 184,000 tonnes in November but stayed in line with typical monthly levels for the year, Enterprise Singapore data showed.

Domestic shipments stayed higher than usual for the third time in four months, contrasting with a dip in re-exports and subsequent fall in import requirements.

The changing export dynamics followed the September start-up of the new Group II base oils unit, boosting the city-state’s self-sufficiency and cutting its need for imports to meet overseas demand.

Key Highlights

·         Domestic shipments made up 87% of total exports in December, the highest share in a year and up from less than 75% in June.

·         Re-exports fell to an eleven-month low, amid lower inflows from overseas suppliers.

·         Combined imports from the US and Europe slipped to a six-month low and the second-weakest level since mid-2024 as Singapore cut its top-up requirements.

·         Domestic exports rebounded in the fourth quarter from a two-year low in the previous three months, when the new unit was starting up.

·         Fourth-quarter domestic shipments were only 4% higher than typical levels during the two years to mid-2025, pointing to a relatively modest rise in domestic output so far.

·         Total exports climbed to 2.10 million tonnes in 2025, the highest volume since 2019, after years of relative stability.

·         Southeast Asia emerged as the dominant destination, with total shipments surging to a multi-year high of more than 930,000 tonnes in 2025.

·         The shipments accounted for more than 44% of Singapore’s total exports, up from less than 23% in 2019.

·         Northeast Asia’s share of total exports held at 24%, down from 35% in 2021.

·         India’s share remained at 20%, up from less-than 10% in 2019.

Market Repercussions

Singapore’s base oils exports have room to rise further following the start-up of the new unit, unless existing production is taken offline.

Either way, the additional capacity is set to cut Singapore’s requirements for top-up volumes from Europe and the US and instead boost flows from the island-state to those markets.

Rising demand in southeast Asia boosts the attraction of keeping more supplies within the region.

The start-up of new base oils capacity in India could by contrast cap any further rise in shipments to that market.