Imports slip after climbing to eight-month high in October, pointing to temporary pauseSouth Korea and Singapore's share of total imports falls amid growing competitionGroup II heavy grades continue to dominate Pakistan's base oils imports.Pakistan’s base oils imports fell in November, signalling a temporary pause rather than a reversal in demand after four straight months of rising shipments.Total imports of close to 22,000 tonnes in November fell from an eight-month high of more than 36,000 tonnes in October, provisional customs data showed.Even with the slowdown, total imports of more than 266,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of the year were 4% higher year on year and 25% above 2023 levels..Higher base oils imports added to multiple signs of a sustained economic recovery in the country..Key Highlights· Imports from Singapore and South Korea fell in November, cutting their combined share of total shipments to 56%, down from 59% in January-November and 75% in 2024..South Korea Base Oils Exports Slide to Six-Month Low in November.· The shrinking share reflected intensifying competition from alternative suppliers such as the US and Taiwan, with the trend continuing through November.· Imports from Taiwan rose to a three-month high, extending a strong surge through 2025 and contrasting with negligible volumes before the fourth quarter of 2024..Taiwan’s December Base Oils Exports Jump to Highest Since 2019.· Additional Group II heavy-grade supplies arrived from the US, adding to a sharp pick-up in such shipments since mid-2024.· There were no imports for a seventh month from Saudi Arabia, where expanded production capacity is expected to come online early this year.· Group II heavy grades continued to dominate imports, accounting for 52% of total November volumes and 55% in January-November, similar to 2024.· The US supplied 38% of Pakistan’s Group II heavy-grade imports in January-November, up from 29% in 2024 and just 1% in 2023, highlighting a sharp shift in sourcing patterns..US’ October Base Oils Exports Rise to Four-Month High .Market RepercussionsThe prospect of firm economic growth extending into 2026 is likely to underpin a further rise in Pakistan’s base oils and lubricants consumption.Rising demand, and Pakistan’s unusually large requirements for Group II heavy grades, make the country an increasingly important outlet at a time when new base oils capacity is coming online in multiple markets.Growing competition already eroded South Korea and Singapore’s share of Pakistan’s imports in 2025.That trend is likely to continue as overseas refiners intensify efforts to ship expanding supplies into fast-growing markets like Pakistan.
