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India's lubricants demand fell to a 14-month low in April as March’s forward buying unwound into weaker consumption
Record April automobile sales and steady fuel demand supported consumption, but rising costs pointed to a more uncertain outlook
Demand uncertainty added to challenge for blenders facing squeezed margins, currency depreciation and disrupted overseas feedstock supply
India’s base oils and lubricating oil consumption fell to a 14-month low in April, pulling back from March highs as inventory unwinding, rising costs and supply disruptions reset the demand outlook.
Total demand fell to 361,000 tonnes in April, dipping from more than 480,000 tonnes in March to the lowest since February 2025, revised data from the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas showed.
March demand had climbed to the second highest on record, as concerns over supply disruption and rising prices encouraged forward buying, adding to a typical surge in procurement at the end of the financial year.
The bolstered inventories then added to a seasonal April demand pullback.
But blenders’ lubricants price increases lagged the surge in crude oil prices from early March, limiting the immediate impact on demand.
India’s retail fuel prices remained unchanged in April, supporting steady fuel consumption alongside strong automobile sales momentum.
India's vehicle sales hit a record April high. Lubricants demand fell anyway.
Key Highlights
· April demand fell by 9% year on year, slipping for the third time in four months and at its fastest pace since June 2025.
· Diesel consumption rose 1% year on year, climbing for the thirteenth time in fourteen months.
· Automobile sales rose 13% year on year and for a ninth straight month to a record high for the month of April.
· Retail fuel prices were unchanged in April before rising in May for the first time in more than a year.
Market Repercussions
Domestic blenders initially limited the impact of higher feedstock costs by drawing on inventories purchased ahead of the early-March surge in global base oils prices.
That buffer eroded as margins tightened and replenishment costs rose.
The dynamic increased pressure on blenders to raise prices, adding lubricants costs to rising fuel prices in a market already facing currency depreciation and disrupted feedstock supply from overseas.
Higher costs across fuel, lubricants and imported feedstocks raised the prospect of further demand softening.
