India's March Lubricants Demand Hits Record High, Tightens Supply

India’s base oils and lubricants demand climbed to a record high in March, tightening already-low inventories as supply disruptions complicated moves to replenish stocks.

Total consumption rose to 483,000 tonnes in March, climbing from 411,000 tonnes in February and marking the eighth year-on-year rise in nine months, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas data showed.

The surge in March consumption repeated a seasonal pattern as blenders maximised sales before financial year-end, with a typical slowdown in the following months providing a window to replenish stocks.

That window was likely to be more difficult to use this year even as demand eased from March levels.

Key Highlights

·         Monthly consumption held above 400,000 tonnes for the sixth time in seven months, compared with just once in the year to August 2025.

·         First-quarter demand of 1.27 million tonnes rose by 5% year on year, extending growth for a third straight quarter.

·         India’s automobile sales jumped by 26% in March year on year, extending their rise for an eighth straight month and mirroring the strength in lubricants consumption.

·         Asia’s base oils exports to India fell to a seventeen-month low in February, pointing to lower inflows into March.

·         Singapore’s base oils exports to India remained below typical levels in March for a second month.

Market Repercussions

India’s base oils supply-demand balance was already tighter than usual ahead of the March demand surge, leaving blenders facing a larger-than-usual replenishment round in the second quarter.

Beyond strong demand, the tighter fundamentals also reflected a slowdown in base oils imports since the end of last year.

Ongoing supply disruptions since end-February were likely to further constrain cargo flows into India.

Lower supply would leave blenders with reduced stocks for longer, with any recovery in flows unlikely in the near term.