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Base oils exports fell to a 13-month low in February, with the month-on-month drop the largest in seventeen months
Exports from Group I suppliers such as Japan and Thailand fell to the lowest in more than two years, while shipments to India dropped to a seventeen-month low
Steady flows to China, combined with elevated domestic output, left it better positioned than Southeast Asia and India against supply disruptions from March
Asia’s base oils exports fell in February to the lowest in more than a year, tightening regional supply even before maintenance work and plant run-cuts began to weigh on availability in the weeks that followed.
Asia’s total exports fell to less than 590,000 tonnes in February, down from more than 700,000 tonnes in January to the lowest level since January 2025, Korea Customs Service, Enterprise Singapore, METI and other government data showed.
The dip in exports coincided with a seasonal pick-up in consumption during the final weeks of the first quarter, adding to unusually firm demand across the region and leaving several markets with less buffer than usual ahead of subsequent disruptions.
Key Highlights
· Total exports fell by more than 115,000 tonnes from January, with the month-on-month drop the largest in seventeen months.
· Exports from key Group I suppliers such as Japan and Thailand fell to the lowest in more than two years.
· Exports to Southeast Asia fell to the second-lowest level in fourteen months, even as demand showed signs of continuing to outpace shipment volumes.
· Exports to India fell to a seventeen-month low, ahead of a typical seasonal surge in demand in March.
· Exports to China held steady at the second-highest level in eleven months, even as the country’s domestic output stayed at elevated levels.
Market Repercussions
Steady flows to China and its high domestic production left the country with a large buffer to meet seasonal demand and absorb unexpected supply disruptions.
Southeast Asia and India entered the period with much thinner cushions.
The persistent shortfall of exports versus demand in Southeast Asia already left the region reliant on regular replenishment volumes, with the gap now at risk of widening.
India’s tight supply-demand fundamentals sustained its requirements for additional imports. Any further slowdown in flows from Asia would complicate efforts to secure adequate volumes, especially with limited availability from alternative sources.
