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Asia's base oils exports pulled back in April from a 36-month high, as Middle East shipments nearly paused and Chinese import demand softened
Exports fell by more than supply fell, pointing to a build-up of inventory in producing markets and leaving availability better supported than expected
Southeast Asia's supply shortfall versus demand widened to the highest in more than seven years, though much of the demand reflected stock-building
Asia's base oils exports fell in April from a 36-month high, as a near-pause in Middle East shipments and softer Chinese demand offset steady regional supply.
Total exports fell to less than 600,000 tonnes in April from close to 730,000 tonnes in March, according to Enterprise Singapore, Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Energy, Statistics Indonesia and other government data.
The volume was the second-lowest in 15 months.
The drop in shipments tallied with expectations that supply disruptions since late February would tighten regional availability.
Exports instead fell more sharply than supply, pointing to a build-up of inventories in producing markets and adding to signs that availability remained firmer than expected.
Key Highlights
Exports to Southeast Asia fell to a 26-month low, leaving that market facing a supply shortfall versus demand for a fourth straight month.
Exports to the Middle East nearly paused, contrasting with average monthly volumes of close to 34,000 tonnes in 2025.
Exports to China fell to a five-month low, with domestic supply covering a larger share of requirements.
Exports to India slipped but held close to average monthly levels in 2025, outperforming other destination markets.
Market Repercussions
Lower Middle East and Chinese demand for imports freed up volumes that offset any reduction in supply, which was smaller than expected. The net effect left overall availability better supported than the total export decline implied.
Exports also fell more sharply than regional supply, pointing to a build-up of inventories in producing markets. Higher stocks reduced the risk of a near-term supply shortfall, even if disruptions to output or trade flows extended through the second quarter.
Southeast Asia remained the main exception, with the import shortfall versus demand reaching the largest in more than seven years. But much of the demand reflected stock-building rather than final-use consumption.
Higher blender inventories, combined with more muted Chinese import demand, and the near-pause in Middle East flows, could moderate regional requirements during the coming months.
A softer demand outlook would limit the impact of any dip in supply, which outside Singapore showed signs of holding firmer than expected.
