Base oils imports rose for the sixth time in seven months in January, with Singapore and South Korea supplying more than 75% of shipments
The Middle East accounted for less than 1% of January imports, limiting direct disruption risk compared with India's near-20% reliance on the region
Indirect pressure is rising as Middle East disruption tightens feedstock supplies across Asia while domestic demand face growing economic headwinds
Pakistan’s base oils imports rose in January for the sixth time in seven months, reflecting an economic recovery that now faces growing threats from the Middle East conflict’s disruption to supply chains and energy prices.
Pakistan’s total base oils imports rose to more than 32,000 tonnes in January, up from around 25,000 tonnes in December and more than double year-earlier levels, customs data showed.
The surge in shipments added to a rise in inflows to a multi-year high in 2025, driven by sustained growth in industrial production and rebounding car sales that lifted demand for industrial oils, engine oils and the base oils feedstock needed to produce them.
The war in the Middle East now threatens to reverse that progress.
Key Highlights
· Singapore and South Korea combined accounted for more than 75% of Pakistan’s base oils imports in January, up from 60% in 2025.
· The Middle East accounted for less than 1% of January imports, down from a 3% share in 2025 and 5% in 2024.
· Pakistan’s low reliance on the Middle East contrasts with India, which relies on the region for around a fifth of its base oils imports.
· The US accounted for 19% of Pakistan’s January imports, down from 21% in 2025.
· Group II heavy-grade base oils accounted for 39% of imports, down from a 55% share in 2025.
Market Repercussions
The small share of imports originating from the Middle East cushioned Pakistan against an immediate and direct impact on base oils supplies.
But indirect pressure is rising.
Tightening feedstock supplies in Asia are putting pressure on refiners to cut run rates and prioritise middle distillate output, raising the prospect of lower base oils exports from the region in the coming weeks.
Any slowdown in Asian exports would take time to filter through, with a steady flow of recent shipments from suppliers such as Singapore and Taiwan already bound for Pakistan.
A dip in demand could also soften the impact of any subsequent drop in supplies.
That risk is growing as higher fuel prices and disruption to crude flows from the Middle East put increasing pressure on Pakistan’s economic recovery.