Base oils imports held firm in February, with US and Taiwan shipments offsetting weaker flows from Singapore and South Korea
Pauses in US exports to Pakistan in February and in Singapore and Taiwan flows in March pointed to a faster drawdown of inventories
Heavy reliance on imports left Pakistan’s blenders more exposed to tightening regional availability after end-February
Pakistan’s base oils imports held firm in a narrow range in February, supported by shipments from Taiwan and the US, whose flows showed signs of slowing into March.
Total imports fell back to around 27,000 tonnes in February, down from an eleven-month high of more than 32,000 tonnes in January, provisional customs data showed.
Stronger imports over the past year helped to cover a rebound in domestic lubricants consumption, reflecting a sustained recovery in economic activity.
Any sustained slowdown in overseas supplies could begin to constrain lubricants production, hampering that recovery.
Key Highlights
· Shipments from Singapore and South Korea combined accounted for 37% of total February imports, down from typical levels of more than 60% and the lowest in six months.
· Singapore’s base oils exports to Pakistan paused in March for the first time in seven months, weekly customs data showed.
· Combined shipments from the US and Taiwan accounted for almost 60% of total imports, up from 34% in 2025 and 17% in 2024.
· US exports to Pakistan paused in February for the first time in five months, while shipments from Taiwan to Pakistan paused in March for the first time in four months.
· Group II heavy-grade base oils accounted for more than 65% of Pakistan’s February imports, driven by increased shipments from the US and Taiwan.
Market Repercussions
Pakistan relied on overseas shipments for around 70% of its base oils supplies in 2024 and 2025, along with all its premium-grade requirements.
That reliance had supported overseas refiners seeking outlets for an expected wave of additional supply over the coming year.
The supply disruptions from end-February instead exposed the risk of that import dependence.
Even if coincidental, the pause in shipments from Taiwan and Singapore in March followed a similar pause from the US in February, accelerating the drawdown of inventories.
Any extension of the slowdown in flows in the coming months could leave blenders with insufficient feedstock to sustain normal operations, hampering the domestic economic recovery that stronger lubricants demand had helped to support.